Key findings:

• The Office for Budget Responsibility has overstated the economic output of migrants arriving in the last 12 months by £8.36bn since 2019 by incorrectly assuming that their working pattern is the same as the population of Britain at large.
• The OBR’s model places the total output of all hours worked by recent migrants at £182.8 billion between 2019 and 2023. We have found that this output is, in reality, £174.6bn.
• The OBR assumes that, of those participating in the workforce, the unemployment rate is approximately 4.2%, which is based on the average. However, ONS labour market statistics released on 16 January show that the “unemployment rate by nationality (16+) – Non-UK national” is actually 5.8%.